Tropical Storm Jerry Approaches — Anguilla, St. Maarten & St. Martin Must Stay Vigilant

By Tracyann Dunkley | Weather Watch

Tropical Storm Jerry continues to pose a potential risk to the northern Leeward Islands, with Anguilla, St. Maarten, and St. Martin under close watch. Forecasts suggest Jerry could strengthen into a hurricane by midweek, and while current models show a northward turn, any shift could bring disruptive weather to the islands by Thursday. Residents are urged to prepare for heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and coastal swells, with flash flooding and travel delays possible.

Tropical Storm Jerry is currently located approximately 525 miles east-southeast of St. Maarten and is forecast to pass about 120 miles north-northeast of the island by Friday night.

• Current Location: Near latitude 17.2°N, longitude 55.2°W
• Distance from St. Maarten/St. Martin: Roughly 525 miles east-southeast
• Projected Closest Approach: 120 miles north-northeast of St. Maarten by Friday night
• Movement: West-northwest at around 16 mph (26 km/h)
• Maximum Sustained Winds: 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts
• Pressure: 982 mb (29.00 inches)
• Wind Field: Hurricane-force winds extend 20 miles from the centre; tropical-storm-force winds extend 80 miles outward
• Rainfall Forecast: 1–2 inches expected, with localised peaks up to 4 inches
• Potential Impacts: Flash flooding, gusty winds (40–60 mph), rough seas, and travel disruptions 

Residents should continue monitoring official updates and prepare for possible adverse conditions starting late Thursday into Friday.

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With Priscilla still out there and Tropical Storm Octave  developing in the eastern Pacific and is currently tracking westward away from land. Though Octave does not pose a direct threat to the Caribbean, its presence adds to the overall uptick in tropical activity across the region and reminds us the season is extremely active.

Tropical Storm Octave as of 07 October 2025 

Meteorologists note that warmer sea temperatures and favourable wind conditions are fuelling a busy storm season, with multiple systems forming in quick succession. While Jerry remains the immediate concern for the northern Leewards, the broader tropical landscape is active and unpredictable.

With the Atlantic basin entering its peak season, Anguilla, St. Maarten, and St. Martin—alongside neighbouring islands—should remain on high alert. Emergency services are on standby, and communities are advised to monitor official updates, secure property, and avoid complacency. The tropics are stirring, and vigilance is key.

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